Following the resignation of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, the role of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in Syria is expected to evolve significantly. HTS, an extremist group primarily based in the northwestern Idlib province, has been one of the most powerful factions operating in Syria during the ongoing civil war. It emerged from the al-Qaeda-linked group Jabhat al-Nusra but later distanced itself from al-Qaeda and declared itself as an independent entity.
1. Military Influence in Idlib:
HTS has long been a dominant military force in the Idlib region, which remains one of the last strongholds of opposition to the Syrian government. Following Assad’s resignation, HTS would likely seek to solidify its control over Idlib and potentially extend its influence to other opposition-held areas. With its military experience, infrastructure, and local support networks, HTS could try to fill the power vacuum left by the departure of Assad’s regime, positioning itself as a leading actor in post-Assad Syria.
2. Political Ambitions and Governance:
HTS has sought to establish a governance system in areas it controls. If Assad steps down, HTS might aim to consolidate its political power and governance structure in Idlib, positioning itself as a legitimate political actor. It may attempt to form alliances with other opposition groups or local entities to shape the post-Assad political landscape. However, HTS’s radical Islamist ideology and its historical ties to al-Qaeda may make it a difficult partner for both regional and international actors looking for a peaceful resolution to Syria’s civil conflict.
3. International Relations:
The international community’s response to HTS’s role in a post-Assad Syria would be complex. Many countries, including the United States, European Union members, and regional powers such as Turkey, view HTS as a terrorist organization due to its extremist ideology and its connections to al-Qaeda. In a scenario where Assad resigns, HTS might face significant diplomatic isolation, and its ability to secure foreign aid or recognition would be limited. However, it might also attempt to leverage its position in Idlib to secure backing from regional powers, such as Turkey, which has a strong interest in the region’s future stability and has previously engaged with HTS indirectly to manage opposition forces.
4. Role in the Syrian Reconstruction Process:
HTS’s involvement in Syria’s reconstruction efforts after Assad’s resignation would be highly controversial. Its radical stance, coupled with its military control over vital territories, would make it a major player in determining how these areas are rebuilt. The group may attempt to rebuild local economies and institutions in a way that aligns with its vision of governance. However, its relationship with the broader Syrian reconstruction process, which would require international funding and support, would be strained due to its designation as a terrorist organization.
5. Challenges and Risks:
HTS would face significant internal and external challenges in a post-Assad Syria. Internally, the group must manage its relations with other rebel factions, some of which may resist its leadership or ideological influence. Externally, its radical ideology could make it a target for military action by both Syrian government forces and international coalitions, especially if it attempts to expand beyond its current strongholds. Additionally, HTS would have to navigate the complex dynamics with Turkey, which has been a key player in Idlib and has supported various opposition groups.
Conclusion:
In the aftermath of Bashar al-Assad’s resignation, HTS will play a crucial role in shaping the future of Syria, particularly in the northwest. Its ability to maintain and expand control in Idlib, assert political influence, and engage with international actors will define its place in the country’s post-Assad future. However, its ideological ties to extremism, resistance from rival factions, and the international community’s hostility towards it may pose significant barriers to its long-term success.
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